April 2026  ·  Strait of Hormuz Crisis  ·  Agricultural Fertilizer Supply Chain

HORMUZ
FERTILIZER
SHOCK

Country Vulnerability Index — v4

The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most consequential maritime chokepoint for fertilizer trade. The GCC states — Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain — plus Iran and Iraq collectively export a dominant share of global urea, ammonia, and potassium fertilizers through its 33-kilometre navigable channel. A sustained closure, whether from conflict, blockade, or deliberate interdiction, would not merely raise agricultural input costs: it would sever supply chains that underpin food production for billions of people.

This index asks a precise question: given that disruption, which countries face structural food security failure — and which can absorb the shock? It covers 121 countries after applying minimum import thresholds and excluding Hormuz-zone producers, micro-states, and commodity trading hubs. It is a relative vulnerability ranking for a specific crisis scenario, not a general food security index.

The methodology combines three independent structural dimensions — Vulnerability, Resilience, and Adaptability — each constructed from primary trade, agricultural, and financial data (UN Comtrade 2023, FAOSTAT 2023, IMF WEO April 2025, World Bank 2023, USDA ERS/PSD 2023). A timing multiplier adjusts final scores for crop calendar proximity as of April 2026.

121 countries ranked 3 structural axes 13 component variables v4 — April 2026 Author: Bored industrial engineer

Index Formula

Aggregation structure & weighting rationale
Final Score
SCORE = [ Axis 1 + Axis 2 + Axis 3 ] / 3 × Timing Multiplier
Each axis is scored 0–1 (0 = most exposed / weakest, 1 = most resilient / strongest). The timing multiplier is a scalar in [0.80, 1.00] applied after averaging. Arithmetic averaging was chosen over a geometric mean: the multiplicative structure catastrophically penalises any single weak axis regardless of strength elsewhere. Missing values are imputed at the dataset median — unknown ≠ bad.
Axis 1 decomposition
Axis 1 (Vulnerability) = 0.60 × Exposure + 0.40 × Transmission
Exposure measures physical routing through Hormuz. Transmission measures how rapidly a price shock propagates through a country's food system to population-level insecurity.

The Three Axes

Component variables and weights
Axis 1  ·  0.60 × Exposure + 0.40 × Transmission
VULNERABILITY
How directly and severely does the shock reach a country's food system? Exposure captures physical supply chain routing; transmission captures how intensively agriculture depends on that fertilizer and how quickly price signals reach the population.
Exposure sub-score
  • Hormuz Fertilizer Dependence50%
  • Supplier Concentration (HHI)20%
  • Upstream Input Dependence15%
  • Hormuz LNG Exposure15%
Transmission sub-score
  • Food Expenditure Share [new v4]30%
  • Yield Gap from Optimal30%
  • Crop Mix Sensitivity25%
  • Urban / Rural Ratio15%
Axis 2
RESILIENCE
What financial and physical buffers can absorb the shock? Foreign exchange reserves, fiscal capacity, and existing food stocks determine how long a country can sustain imports at elevated prices or substitute domestically. Income-based floors correct for systematic distortions in reserve-currency issuing and major financial centre economies.
  • FX Reserves (months of import cover)35%
  • Fiscal Balance (% GDP)35%
  • Food Reserves (weighted days of supply)30%
Food reserves excluded (not imputed) for 46 countries with no USDA PSD data; FX + Fiscal renormalized to 50%/50%. Russia: FX excluded entirely (~$300B frozen); axis computed from Fiscal + Food only.
Axis 3
ADAPTABILITY
What structural escape valves exist? Domestic ammonia production, diversified supplier relationships, caloric self-sufficiency, and flexible crop systems reduce dependence on the disrupted supply chain.
  • Domestic Ammonia Capacity (feedstock-adj.)30%
  • Caloric Self-Sufficiency (IDR) [new v4]20%
  • Alternative Supplier Diversity20%
  • Crop Substitution Flexibility (Shannon H)15%
  • Input Reduction Tolerance10%
  • Port / Infrastructure (LPI)5%

Score Distribution & Tiers

121-country final distribution · v4
Tier Score Range Count Interpretation
COOKED ≤ 0.486 22 Structural failure likely regardless of government response
CRITICAL ≤ 0.541 35 High probability of food security crisis; needs rapid external support
STRESSED ≤ 0.585 19 Significant disruption, price shocks, rationing likely but manageable
EXPOSED ≤ 0.643 22 Feels the shock, absorbs it with difficulty; no famine risk
INSULATED > 0.643 23 Minimal real-world food security impact
Tier thresholds are set at the 10th, 32nd, 67th, and 87th percentiles of the actual score distribution — relative rankings within this sample, not absolute food security standards. The score distribution has a mean of ~0.57 and σ ≈ 0.08.

"Insulated" does not mean unaffected — it means the structural food security impact is minimal relative to other countries in the sample. This index is designed for a specific crisis scenario. It is not a general food security index.